Flatten the curve.
Historical data can lend perspective to our response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Why Are schools being cancelled?
As the Covid-19 virus spreads around the world you might find yourself asking why such extreme measures are being taken when no one that you know has contracted the virus yet. The reason is that public health experts are asking us all to do what we can to help flatten the curve through social distancing. Take a look at this dataset from two cities affected by the H1N1 Influenza pandemic of 1918 and think about why your school made the decision to close temporarily. Although Covid-19 is a coronavirus and not influenza, it is a highly contagious respiratory illness and looking at these data can provide insights that may be relevant to the current situation.
Influenza pandemics have occurred multiple times throughout history. The influenza pandemic of 1918 was particularly severe and resulted in the deaths of 50-100 million people worldwide, with 500,000-675,000 deaths in the U.S. alone. Some American cities were hit much harder than others and this is believed to be partly the result of the different degrees to which individual cities implemented policies to increase social distancing. Some cities closed schools and put bans on public gatherings, while others did not or waited until later in the outbreak to take such actions.
An interesting comparison of these response strategies can be made between Philadelphia and St. Louis during the 1918 influenza pandemic. The first confirmed cases of the disease were reported in Philadelphia on September 17, 1918. City officials did not take swift action and allowed a large city-wide parade to take place as scheduled on September 28th. Schools remained open in Philadelphia until October 3rd when the disease began to fill all local hospitals past capacity. At that time the city began to shut down and encourage social distancing. In contrast, St. Louis’s first confirmed cases were reported on October 5, 1918. By October 7th, St. Louis moved quickly to put social distancing measures in place.
Look at the dataset showing the death rate due to influenza from September 14 to December 28, 1918 in both Philadelphia and St. Louis and think about how the different responses to the influenza outbreak influenced the spread of the disease.
Activities
Make a graph to look at the data. Show “Date” on the X-axis and “Death Rate/100K people” on the Y-axis. Show “City” on Z and then check the box to “connect dots”.
1. How is the shape of the curve for the outbreak in Philadelphia different from the shape of the curve for St. Louis?
2. Looking closely at the data, what happened to the death rate in Philadelphia immediately following the city-wide parade held on September 28th?
3. Keeping limited space and resources in hospitals and medical facilities in mind, how do you think the two different curves would affect the quality of health care available to patients during the epidemics in each of the two cities?
4. Do you think these data are relevant to public health officials in cities around the world as they make decisions about how to handle the current coronavirus pandemic? Explain your answer.